OFR RESEARCH ON INFLATION Inflation Measures of consumer price inflation began to rise in the spring of 2021 and continued to rise through the start of 2022, climbing to high levels not seen in several decades and remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% per annum. In July 2022, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 8.5% yearover-year after reaching 9.1% in June. Increases remained above 8% through the summer and early fall. The personal consumption expenditure core price index (PCE Core), which excludes food and energy, has hovered at around a seasonally adjusted 5% throughout 2022 (see Figure 1).1 Durable goods inflation, which was significantly below services price inflation over the last decade, has risen above it since 2021. Several factors have been driving prices higher, including strong aggregate demand, a post-pandemic reopening of the economy, and a material shift from services to goods. In addition, demand increased as the U.S....
Nouriel Roubini is Professor Emeritus (2021-present), Professor of Economics (1995-2021), Stern School of Business, New York University. He is also CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, a global macroeconomic consultancy firm in New York, as well as Co-Founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates based out of London. At a 2006 address to the International Monetary Fund, Roubini warned of the impending recession due to the credit and housing market bubble. His predictions of these upside-down balance sheets became a reality in 2008, with the bubble bursting and reverberating around the world into a global financial crisis – a recession we’re only recently rebounding from after a decade climb. Speaking at the 7th edition of The Economic Times, Global Business Summit, Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus, Stern School of Business, New York University, talks about mega threats, 'Polycrisis' and the confluence of calamities facing the Global Economy. Nouriel Roubini Speech